UFC · October 10, 2026 · Upcoming

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Meta APEX · Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

05:00 PMPreliminaries startUS Eastern

View prediction standings

Predict this card

Pick a winner, method and round for every fight and see how you stack up on the leaderboard.

Make your picks

Main card

Main event

Middleweight5 rounds

Brendan Allen

27-7-0

Market win probability: 56%

Christian Leroy Duncan

15-2-0

Market win probability: 44%

Elo difference 76 points

Tale of the tape: Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Brendan Allen	Attribute	Christian Leroy Duncan
1888	Current Elo	1812
56%	Market	44%
27-7-0	Professional record	15-2-0
#6 · Middleweight	Ranking	#10 · Middleweight
30	Age	31
188 cm	Height	188 cm
190 cm	Reach	201 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Co-main

Lightweight3 rounds

Matheus Camilo

11-3-0

Market win probability: 64%

Jai Herbert

14-6-1

Market win probability: 36%

Elo difference 31 points

Tale of the tape: Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
Matheus Camilo	Attribute	Jai Herbert
1592	Current Elo	1561
64%	Market	36%
11-3-0	Professional record	14-6-1
#44 · Lightweight	Ranking	#58 · Lightweight
25	Age	38
178 cm	Height	185 cm
177 cm	Reach	196 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Women’s Strawweight3 rounds

Loopy Godínez

14-6-0

Market win probability: 67%

Ketlen Souza

17-6-0

Market win probability: 33%

Elo difference 31 points

Tale of the tape: Loopy Godínez vs Ketlen Souza
Loopy Godínez	Attribute	Ketlen Souza
1617	Current Elo	1586
67%	Market	33%
14-6-0	Professional record	17-6-0
#13 · Women’s Strawweight	Ranking	#18 · Women’s Strawweight
33	Age	32
157 cm	Height	160 cm
155 cm	Reach	160 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Featherweight3 rounds

Andre Fili

25-14-0 (1 NC)

Market win probability: 59%

Kai Kamaka III

18-8-1

Market win probability: 41%

Elo difference 12 points

Tale of the tape: Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III
Andre Fili	Attribute	Kai Kamaka III
1490	Current Elo	1478
59%	Market	41%
25-14-0 (1 NC)	Professional record	18-8-1
#68 · Featherweight	Ranking	#72 · Featherweight
36	Age	31
180 cm	Height	170 cm
188 cm	Reach	175 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Bantamweight3 rounds

Malcolm Wellmaker

10-2-0

Market win probability: 66%

Otari Tanzilovi

10-2-0

Market win probability: 34%

Elo difference 42 points

Tale of the tape: Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
Malcolm Wellmaker	Attribute	Otari Tanzilovi
1511	Current Elo	1469
66%	Market	34%
10-2-0	Professional record	10-2-0
#55 · Bantamweight	Ranking	#74 · Featherweight
32	Age	28
178 cm	Height	178 cm
182 cm	Reach	—
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Preliminaries

Light Heavyweight3 rounds

Julius Walker

7-2-0

Market win probability: 70%

Gerald Meerschaert

37-22-0

Market win probability: 30%

Elo difference 107 points

Tale of the tape: Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
Julius Walker	Attribute	Gerald Meerschaert
1437	Current Elo	1544
70%	Market	30%
7-2-0	Professional record	37-22-0
#39 · Light Heavyweight	Ranking	#45 · Middleweight
27	Age	38
193 cm	Height	185 cm
198 cm	Reach	197 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Lightweight3 rounds

Francisco Prado

12-5-0

Market win probability: 50%

Ismael Bonfim

20-7-0

Market win probability: 50%

Elo difference 9 points

Tale of the tape: Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
Francisco Prado	Attribute	Ismael Bonfim
1442	Current Elo	1433
50%	Market	50%
12-5-0	Professional record	20-7-0
#73 · Welterweight	Ranking	#87 · Lightweight
24	Age	30
178 cm	Height	173 cm
175 cm	Reach	182 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Welterweight3 rounds

Niko Price

16-11-0 (2 NC)

Market win probability: 41%

Leon Shahbazyan

12-5-0

Market win probability: 59%

Elo difference 51 points

Tale of the tape: Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan
Niko Price	Attribute	Leon Shahbazyan
1397	Current Elo	1448
41%	Market	59%
16-11-0 (2 NC)	Professional record	12-5-0
#75 · Welterweight	Ranking	#70 · Welterweight
37	Age	30
183 cm	Height	193 cm
193 cm	Reach	196 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Light Heavyweight3 rounds

Felipe Franco

11-2-0

Market win probability: 75%

Brendson Ribeiro

17-11-0

Market win probability: 25%

Elo difference 160 points

Tale of the tape: Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro
Felipe Franco	Attribute	Brendson Ribeiro
1530	Current Elo	1370
75%	Market	25%
11-2-0	Professional record	17-11-0
#33 · Light Heavyweight	Ranking	#44 · Light Heavyweight
25	Age	30
185 cm	Height	190 cm
—	Reach	206 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Heavyweight3 rounds

RJ Harris

6-0-0

Market win probability: 73%

Allen Frye Jr.

6-1-0

Market win probability: 27%

Elo difference 80 points

Tale of the tape: RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr.
RJ Harris	Attribute	Allen Frye Jr.
1550	Current Elo	1470
73%	Market	27%
6-0-0	Professional record	6-1-0
#29 · Heavyweight	Ranking	#42 · Heavyweight
28	Age	28
190 cm	Height	196 cm
198 cm	Reach	204 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Women’s Bantamweight3 rounds

Darya Zheleznyakova

10-3-0

Market win probability: 43%

Alice Pereira

7-1-0

Market win probability: 57%

Elo difference 39 points

Tale of the tape: Darya Zheleznyakova vs Alice Pereira
Darya Zheleznyakova	Attribute	Alice Pereira
1484	Current Elo	1524
43%	Market	57%
10-3-0	Professional record	7-1-0
#23 · Women’s Bantamweight	Ranking	#17 · Women’s Bantamweight
—	Age	20
—	Height	173 cm
—	Reach	180 cm
	Last 3 fights

Win probabilities according to bookmakers. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Women’s Flyweight3 rounds

Ernesta Kareckaitė

6-2-1

Market win probability: 48%

Melissa Gatto

9-3-2

Market win probability: 52%

Elo difference 116 points

Tale of the tape: Ernesta Kareckaitė vs Melissa Gatto
Ernesta Kareckaitė	Attribute	Melissa Gatto
1464	Current Elo	1581
48%	Market	52%
6-2-1	Professional record	9-3-2
#27 · Women’s Flyweight	Ranking	#18 · Women’s Flyweight
28	Age	30
175 cm	Height	165 cm
180 cm	Reach	175 cm
	Last 3 fights

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Main card

Brendan Allen

Christian Leroy Duncan

Matheus Camilo

Jai Herbert

Loopy Godínez

Ketlen Souza

Andre Fili

Kai Kamaka III

Malcolm Wellmaker

Otari Tanzilovi

Preliminaries

Julius Walker

Gerald Meerschaert

Francisco Prado

Ismael Bonfim

Niko Price

Leon Shahbazyan

Felipe Franco

Brendson Ribeiro

RJ Harris

Allen Frye Jr.

Darya Zheleznyakova

Alice Pereira

Ernesta Kareckaitė

Melissa Gatto

Prediction standings

Comments